How is Leak Size Calculated?

Leak Size Explained (Simple)

Leak Explorer looks at the differences in your Stat Value & Win Rate vs. the Winning Players Stat Value & Win Rate along with Opportunity Counts to come up with the Leak Size. 

*If the Hero Stat Win Rate is better than the Winning Players, Leak Explorer automatically gives the stat a (No Leak) status.  

Leak Size Math Formula

Leak Size = (Abs(StatValueDiff) * WinRateDiff * OpportunityCount / MaxOpportunityCount)

Stat Value Diff

Stat value diff is the difference between the current player’s stat value and the mean/average of the winning players’ stat values and opportunity counts measured in standard deviations (SD).

Standard Deviation is a measure of the amount of variation in the winning players’ stat values. A low standard deviation indicates that the winners’ stat values tend to be close, while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range.

  • A low Standard Deviation means the opponents are in close agreement with what a stat value should be. 
  • A high Standard Deviation means there is not much agreement. So by basing leak size on the stat value difference in Standard Deviation, Leak Explorer takes into consideration the relative agreement (or disagreement) of the opponents.

Winning Player mean values are weighted by each opponent's opportunity count and win rate. Opponents with more opportunities and higher win rates have more affect on the means.

Win Rate Diff

Win rate diff is the difference between the current player’s win rate and the mean/average of the winning players’ win rates measured in big blinds per 100 hands.

Leak Explorer uses the HM3 stat “All-in Adj bb/100” for win rate, which reduces the effect of luck by adjusting for all-in expected value.

Opportunity Count

Opportunity Count is the number of total times a player performed the action. 

Max Opportunity Count

Max Opportunity Count is the maximum opportunity count of all stats, which is usually pretty close to the hero's hand count. Leak size is divided by Max Opportunity Count in order to normalize leak sizes between databases. Leak sizes for a small database will be in the same order of magnitude as leak sizes for a large database.

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